Case-Shiller Index Verifies Home Value Gains Through Q3 2012

The housing market continues to expand.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which was released earlier this week, U.S. home prices rose in September for the sixth straight month, climbing 0.3% as compared to the month prior.

On an annual basis, values are higher by 3.0%.

The Case-Shiller Index findings are a composite reading of 20 U.S cities, 17 of which showed home price gains in September. Detroit and Washington D.C. showed slight declines, and New York City showed no change.

Leading the recovery, though, appears to be Phoenix, Arizona. The previously hard-hit city has seen home values gain 20.4% over the last 12 months. Also noteworthy is that Atlanta, Georgia reversed 26 consecutive months of home value declines in September, posting a +0.1% annual growth rate.

Average U.S. home prices have climbed back to mid-2003 levels.

On a month-over-month basis, value change by city varied. San Diego, California and Las Vegas, Nevada both posted gains of 1.4 percent from August, leading the Case-Shiller Index's 20 tracked cities. Minneapolis, Minnesota and Phoenix showed gains of 1.1 percent.

Los Angeles, California rounded out the Top Five, posting a 1% gain month-over-month.

Despite the index's strong findings, however, we should remember to temper our expectations. The Case-Shiller Index -- like most home value trackers -- is wildly flawed. Buyers in Orlando should follow its gospel with caution.

Here's why.

First, the Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only. As a result, it doesn't account for multi-unit homes or for condos and co-ops. This is a big deal in cities such as Chicago and New York where high-rise units are common.

Another flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is that it's 60 days delayed. It's nearly December yet we're still reviewing data from September. In housing market terms, September was a different market. Real-time data trumps data from last season. 

That said, the long-term trends as shown by the Case-Shiller Index, are overwhelmingly positive. As a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson remarked, "It is safe to say we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market."

19 of 20 Case-Shiller Index Markets Improve In August

Home values rose to close out the summer, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, a national home-valuation tracker.
Nationwide, values rose 0.9% between July and August 2012 with 19 of 20 tracked markets showing improvement. Only one tracked city -- Seattle, Washington -- showed a decrease, falling just 0.1 percent.
On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved, led by Phoenix. Home values in the Arizona city are up 18.8 percent from August 2011. The next closest city in terms of home price gains is Detroit, Michigan at 7.6 percent
We should temper our excitement for the August Case-Shiller Index, however. Although it suggests an ongoing U.S. housing recovery, the methodology of the Case-Shiller Index is far-from-perfect. In fact, one could argue that the index is more effective for policy-makers than for actual buyers and sellers of real estate.
There are three reasons for this :

1. The Case-Shiller Index tracks home prices of single-family homes only. Multi-unit homes are excluded.
2. The Case-Shiller Index can be distorted by "discounted" home sales (e.g.; foreclosure, short sale).
3. The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a two-month delay -- data is hardly current.

Beyond the above three points, however, the Case-Shiller Index falls short in another area -- it ignores the basic tenet of housing that "all real estate is local". In using 20 cities to represent the entire United States, the Case-Shiller Index reduces more than 3,100 municipalities into a single "market".

Even within its 20 tracked cities, the Case-Shiller Index fails short as a housing market barometer. This is because -- even with cities -- home values vary. Some Windermere zip codes perform better than others, for example, as do some streets within Doctor Phillips. The Case-Shiller Index can't capture markets with that level of detail.
National housing data helps in spotting broader trends of growth but provides very little for today's active buyers and sellers of real estate who need "real-time" data. For that, talk to a local real estate agent.